As part of the Economic Workshop organized by the Arab Fertilizer Association (AFA) in Istanbul, Türkiye, the second session, entitled “Geopolitics, Supply Chains & Market Disruption in Gas & Nitrogen”, was delivered by Laurent Ruseckas and Ella Mukerji from S&P Global Energy.

The session examined developments in the global geopolitical landscape, including scenarios related to the Strait of Hormuz, key factors influencing international policy and decision-making, and the implications of geopolitical developments on global shipping routes and trade flows.

Participants also explored the impact of supply chain disruptions on nitrogen markets, with particular attention to China's export policies, tariffs imposed on Russian fertilizer exports, and the short-term outlook for nitrogen fertilizer prices.

In addition, discussions addressed climate and regulatory policies in the European Union, including recent developments in EU climate policy and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The session highlighted the methodology for calculating carbon costs and examined the potential implications of these measures on the competitiveness of the fertilizer industry and global markets.